As of today, Hillary Clinton has to be considered the favorite for 3 big reasons. Here they are in their order of importance.
- The electoral map. In the 6 presidential elections since 1992, the Democratic candidate has won 18 states + DC every time. That’s 242 total electoral votes. The Republican nominee has won 13 states in every one of those elections. That’s 102 electoral votes. If Clinton wins the 18 states + DC that every Democratic has won since 1992 AND she wins Florida (29 electoral votes) the election is over. She is president.
- The demographics. Republicans had a demographic problem going into this election. They are facing down a demographic nightmare now. Mitt Romney won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012. Trump is, currently, doing half that well. Given the massive growth in the Hispanic community and the declining percentage of the white vote as a function of the total electorate, that’s a massive problem.
- Donald Trump. Trump will get blamed more than he probably should if he loses on November 8. Trump hasn’t helped himself with his inflammatory rhetoric and unwillingness to stay on message of course.